Mock Draft 1.0

Style:  Predictive (predicting what will actually happen)

Trades:  On

Date:  2/13/2023

Pick   Team Selection Position

1 Colts (*via trade) Will Levis, Kentucky QB

Colts are desperate for a QB, and GM Chris Ballard may be out if he doesn't find Jim Irsay a quarterback.  Levis reminds Irsay of Manning and Luck, and Ballard loves players with good traits.  Levis checks those boxes and is the pick here.

2 Texans Bryce Young, Alabama QB

New HC DeMeco Ryans returns to his Alma Mater to pluck the top-rated QB on many people's boards.

3 Cardinals Will Anderson, Alabama Edge

New GM Monti Ossenfort spoke glowingly about acquiring the right people, not just players, for his team.  Anderson is high character and high talent, and is an easy pick here.

4 Bears (*via trade) Jalen Carter, Georgia DT

Bears HC Matt Eberflus has called the 3-Tech "the engine that makes the defense go".  No better fit here than the uber-talented Carter.

5 Panthers (*via trade) C.J. Stroud, Ohio St QB

Frank Reich has seen enough of veteran QB's from his time with the Colts, so he overpays slightly in this scenario to outbid the Raiders and other QB-needy teams.  Stroud showed some off-script ability in his final game, answering one of the last questions about his ability.

6 Lions Devon Witherspoon, Illinois CB

Detroit needs plenty of help in the secondary.  Witherspoon brings an attitude that matches the coaching staff and instantly upgrades that unit.

7 Raiders Paris Johnson Jr, Ohio State OT

The Raiders have a number of needs across the OL, but none bigger than tackle.  In Johnson they get a prototypical left tackle prospect.

8 Falcons Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech Edge

The Falcons need help across the D Line.  Wilson has elite length and the high end traits that give hiim the potential to develop into a high-end edge rusher.

9 Seahawks (*via trade) Myles Murphy, Clemson Edge

Pete Carroll has openly lamented the lack of a pass rush in 2022.  The large drop-off after Anderson and Carter led the trade down, but Murphy can start right away and provide pass rush ability without being a liability in the run game.

10 Eagles Christian Gonzalez, Oregon CB

Considered going with Skoronski or Jones here, given GM Howie Roseman's propensity to build the lines, but Gonzalez is too good to pass up for a team who needs a cornerback.

11 Titans Broderick Jones, Georgia OT

Titans need a tackle and Jones can immediately step in and help the run game while he improves in pass pro at the NFL level.

12 Texans Quentin Johnston, TCU WR

Can see Johnston falling a bit, but here the Texans get their new QB a big target to work with.

13 Jets Peter Skoronski, Northwestern OG

The Jets have many questions to figure out at tackle this off-season.  Skoronski has concerns about his arm-length, but he is highly technical and can start on Day 1.

14 Patriots Joey Porter Jr, Penn State CB

Patriots go BPA here and fill a need.  Belichick will love the bloodlines and the consistency he gets with Porter.

15 Packers Michael Mayer, Notre Dame TE

Who knows what will happen with Aaron Rodgers after he gets out of his darkness retreat, but the Packers get a big target here who also helps in the run game.

16 Commanders Anthony Richardson, Florida QB

Washington gets an uber-talented, albeit raw QB prospect in Richardson.  Some have comped him to Cam Newton, who played for Washington HC Ron Rivera in Carolina.

17 Steelers Darnell Wright, Tennessee OT

The Steelers biggest need is at offensive tackle, and Wright will start on the right side on Day 1.

18 Lions Calijah Kancey, Pitt DT

Kancey gives the Lions a very fun prospect in the middle of their D Line.  He's undersized, but with a very high motor and natural ability to penetrate the backfield.

19 Buccaneers Lukas Van Ness, Iowa Edge

The Bucs need to reload along an aging D Line.  Van Ness has excellent traits and has versatility to play all over the line.

20 Seahawks Cam Smith, S. Carolina CB

The Seahawks stay on the defensive side of the ball with their second 1st round pick here, adding an instant starter at CB.

21 Dolphins forfeited

pick forfeited due to tampering allegations

22 Chargers Zay Flowers, Boston College WR

With questions about Keenan Allen and considering Mike Williams' injury history, the Chargers get Justin Herbert an electric weapon in Zay Flowers.

23 Ravens Jordan Addison, USC WR

Desparate for receivers, the Ravens benefit from Addison's slide. Potentially the most polished receiver in this year's class, Addison should help the Ravens passing game immediately.

24 Vikings Brian Branch, Alabama S

Versatile enough to play Safety or Nickel Corner, Branch is an excellent chess piece to help solidify the Vikings back end of the defense.

25 Jaguars O'Cyrus Torrence, Florida OG

Torrence is a plug and play Guard who should help Jacksonville's running game immediately.

26 Giants Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State WR

The Giants need playmakers and Smith-Njigba flashed plenty of playmaking ability at Ohio State before an injury-riddled (hamstring) 2022 season.

27 Cowboys Bijan Robinson, Texas RB

Tony Pollard is a Free Agent and Ezekiel Elliott is declining.  The dead money in Zeke's contract is manageable after 2023, so the Cowboys can restart the clock at RB here.  Also note that Jerry Jones LOVES to draft the best player at a position in the 1st round.  Here he could have gone with Bijan or Trenton Simpson, but we're giving the edge to Bijan as he may be the single best player in this draft.

28 Bills Jon Michael Schmitz, Minnesota C

The Bills can save $6.3 million against the cap by cutting current center Mitch Morse.  Schmitz is a Day 1 starter whose mobility will help in the run game as well as giving quality pass protection.

29 Bengals Darnell Washington, Georgia TE

Hayden Hurst is a Free Agent and Washington provides a huge in-line blocker (he's 6'7") and another receiving threat for Joe Burrow.

30 Saints Bryan Bresee, Clemson DT

With needs across the DL, the Saints could have gone with an edge rusher here.  That class is deeper than DT, where Bresee can provide some interior pass rush.

31 Eagles Nolan Smith, Georgia Edge

Howie Roseman strikes again, snagging a trench player who slid too far.  Smith is undersized at 235 lbs, but is a dynamic athlete who uses good leverage and plays tougher than he looks.

32 Chiefs Anton Harrison, Oklahoma OT

With questions at both tackle spots (Brown contract, Niang injury history), the Chiefs bolster the OL with a tackle who excels in pass pro.

*Trade Details:

Trades are made using the Jimmie Johnson chart, which most closely aligns with trades actually performed during recent drafts.

Team Receives

Bears 1st (4), 2nd (36), 4th (80), 2024 1st, 2024 3rd ~~~ JJ 3030 pts ~~~

Colts 1st (1), 5th (151)   ~~~ JJ 3029 pts ~~~

Commentary:  The Bears should have plenty of suitors for this pick.  Staying in the top 4 picks allows them to draft a much needed blue chip prospect.  The Colts get their QB while still keeping 7 picks in this draft. 

Seahawks 1st (9), 2nd (40)  ~~~ JJ 1850 pts ~~~

Panthers 1st (5), 5th (154)   ~~~ JJ 1728 pts ~~~

Commentary:  The Seahawks should be happy to move down in this spot, given the drop-off after Anderson and Carter have gone.  The Panthers overpay in this scenario, as there would likely be a number of suitors willing to come up to 5 to get Stroud.  Even after this, Carolina still ends up with 7 picks, all in the first 5 rounds.

Next Best Available:

Trenton Simpson, Clemson LB

Dawand Jones, Ohio State OT

Joe Tippmann, Wisconsin C

Jack Campbell, Iowa LB

Clark Phillips III, Utah CB

Dalton Kincaid, Utah TE

Antonio Johnson, Texas A&M S

Siaki Ika, Baylor DT

Keeanu Benton, Wisconsin DT

Cody Mauch, N.D. State OG

B.J. Ojulari, LSU Edge

Keion White, Georgia Tech Edge

Drew Sanders, Arkansas LB

Kayshon Boutte, LSU WR

Kelee Ringo, Georgia CB